Elections, leaders and the struggle to be heard
Elections, leaders and the struggle to be heard
The two faces of Indonesian democracy, Beijing's inevitable squeeze in Hong Kong, and the Washington method in Southeast Asia
Dear readers,
It’s been a couple of months since I last sent out a newsletter. Apologies for the radio silence but I’ve been sucked into a whirlwind of virtual events and engagements that spun out of the launch of my book in September.
In a difficult year, it’s been heartening to see the interest in Indonesia in Australia and beyond. Frankly speaking, it’s also been exhausting.
As a former journalist, I’m used to being the one asking the tough questions. In recent months, the roles have been flipped. I’ve been grilled about Man of Contradictions by leading political scientists, economists and former government officials. Academics and analysts of all different hues have picked apart my research and writing. And I managed to survive a one-hour Hardtalk-style interview by top Indonesian journalist Desi Anwar:
I’ve posted some highlights at the end of this update but there are a few other issues I want to discuss first.
The two faces of Indonesian democracy
Last week, more than 100 million Indonesians voted for 270 local leadership positions in a series of important local elections. I’ve long been a fan of Indonesia’s incredible electoral logistics and it was good to see the process run remarkably smoothly, given Indonesia is still in the midst of an “endless first wave” of COVID-19.
Two images from the election stood out to me, highlighting the deep tensions in Indonesia’s young democracy. Firstly, below is Gibran Rakabuming Raka, a 33-year-old small-time catering businessman from Solo, who also happens to be President Joko Widodo’s oldest son. He is voting in the Solo mayoral election, presumably for himself.
Until last year, Gibran had shown no interest in politics. But then he, and fellow political neophyte brother-in-law Bobby Nasution, threw their hat into the ring for key mayoral races - Gibran following in Jokowi’s footsteps in Solo, Bobby running in Medan, Sumatra’s most important commercial centre. Both Gibran and Bobby appear to have won their seats, judging by Indonesia’s usually accurate quick counts. Bobby faced serious opposition, while Gibran stood against a little-known tailor who emerged at the last minute to prevent an embarrassing coronation (no wonder people think that the Solo election was sewn-up before it began).
Their elite-backed entry into politics dismayed reformist (former) supporters of Jokowi, who promised before the 2014 presidential election to improve the political system so that leaders were chosen because of their “skills and track record” rather than their “wealth and proximity to decision-makers”. But, as I argued in Nikkei Asia, the problem is bigger than Jokowi’s transformation from plucky outsider to consummate elite politician.
Gibran and Bobby were just two of more than 100 dynastic candidates running in the elections. In Kediri in East Java, the son of Pramono Anung, Jokowi's cabinet secretary, ran unopposed, in one of 25 races where local elites cooperated to ensure no rival candidates. Twenty-two years after the fall of Suharto, powerful families and tycoons seem to be consolidating their grip on power. That’s why we’ve seen students back out on the streets on a regular basis, fearing that their ability to drive change within the system is ebbing away.
However, it’s not all bad news. The second revealing picture shows voters in Pekalongan, Central Java, lining in floodwaters to cast their ballots.
The photo symbolises how much Indonesians cherish the right to choose their leaders, despite (or because of?) the elites’ disdain for them. Indonesians regularly turn out for elections in numbers that put developed democracies to shame, with an estimated 60-65% turnout last week, which is amazing given the pandemic. Their votes, and the mostly free and fair nature of the elections, are a strong check on the powers-that-be.
The next presidential election in 2024, when Jokowi is mandated to step down, and the long-term shape of Indonesian democracy will be determined by this grand contest between elite attempts to marshal power and the aspirations of a people who are desperate for effective, responsive, corruption-free leaders.
Beijing’s Hong Kong squeeze: inevitable and intensifying
Two years ago, I ended my stint in Hong Kong, and my thirteen-year career in journalism, with a big read for the Financial Times about Beijing’s intensifying pressures on the city’s freedoms and autonomy. The situation looked bleak by then. The Chinese Communist Party, and its apparatchiks in the Hong Kong government, had shown their determination to turn “rule of law” into “rule by law”, to curtail human rights and shut down the space for political opposition.
By that point, the authorities had already kidnapped people off the streets of Hong Kong and whisked them to the mainland, ousted legislators and banned activists from elections because of thought crimes, and kicked out a foreign correspondent for the first time since the handover in 1997. Xi Jinping had warned people in Hong Kong not to cross his “red line” but the problem, as pointed out by the head of the Bar Association, was that the line was moving fast. “You will know when you’ve crossed it, even if you can’t see it,” he told me.
Much of what Beijing has done to Hong Kong in the last two years was entirely predictable, although many diplomats and foreign investors were reluctant to acknowledge the dawning reality until it was too late. And yet, despite the inevitability of the crackdown, the pace of it - and the human cost - has still been surprising and deeply disconcerting.
A case in point: in my 2017 book, Generation HK: Seeking Identity in China’s Shadow, I interviewed seven prominent young democracy activists (among other figures). Three of them are now in jail (Edward Leung, Agnes Chow and Joshua Wong), two have gone into exile (Nathan Law and Baggio Leung) and one (Andy Chan) had his political organisation outlawed and has just been acquitted of charges relating to a protest. Only one of these committed young people, emergency doctor and district councillor Kwong Po-yin, is still free and active in Hong Kong politics.
Beyond these seven, many other pro-democracy politicians and campaigners who I met over the years have been forced out of formal politics, charged with political crimes or been forced into exile. And, I hate to say it, but this looks like only the first wave, with many more trials, national security charges and asylums bids to come as Beijing ratchets up the pressure.
What can the outside world do, I asked the head of the UK Parliament’s foreign affairs committee, ambitious Tory MP Tom Tugendhat, in a recent podcast? Not much beyond calling out Beijing’s actions, expressing solidarity with Hong Kongers, and offering refuge to those who flee.
In the short term, Xi’s clampdown will succeed in weakening the democracy movement in Hong Kong. But, as history has repeatedly shown, grabbing people by the balls is not a great way to win their hearts and minds. By deepening the pool of resentment, and intensifying the sense of Hong Kong’s separate identity, Beijing is likely to be storing up more problems for itself down the line.
The Washington method in Southeast Asia
How do you get policymakers in Washington to think more about Southeast Asia? Talk to them about something they actually care about, an American counterpart once joked to me. In my debut piece for War on the Rocks, I argued that if you portray Southeast Asia as an arena for competition with a rival great power (China today, the Soviet Union previously) or for pushback against a dangerous ideology, be it Islamism or communism, you just might get some interest.
In doing so, however, you risk a Pyrrhic victory. For, having framed the region around a broad, sweeping threat, you will find it very hard to argue for a nuanced approach to the diverse and divergent nations of Southeast Asia. And without clear thinking and a carefully calibrated approach, a great power such as the United States risks doing its own position in the region more harm than good.
The piece, which was a response to Vincent Bevins’ thought-provoking new book The Jakarta Method, was published at an opportune moment, amid hopes that the Biden administration will re-engage with Southeast Asia and repair some of the damage done by Trump and friends.
Richard Maude, who wrote the Australian government’s Foreign Policy White Paper in 2017 and used to lead the Office of National Assessments, has some great advice for the incoming administration here, in his new guise as a think-tanker.
Trumping Trump’s SE Asia policy will not be hard. But it remains to be seen if team Biden can re-connect with the nations of the region on their own terms, without letting US-China competition overshadow these relationships.
As I conclude for War on the Rocks: “Such is the dizzying force of US power that it can blind its sternest critics, as well as its strongest supporters, to the gray zones where most other nations exist. Viewing the world in black and white, through the lens of great-power competition: You might call it the Washington Method.”
Book stuff
To end on a positive note, I’ve been blown away by the great reception for Man of Contradictions. Here are some highlights from the latest coverage:
Cited in The Economist’s Banyan column, which called it “an excellent book”.
Featured in the Literary Review, under the brilliant headline “From Cabinetmaker to Cabinet Maker”.
Reviewed by Yanuar Nugroho, Jokowi’s former deputy chief of staff, in Contemporary Southeast Asia.
Reviewed in Foreign Affairs by Andrew Nathan, professor of political science at Columbia University.
Reviewed in the Los Angeles Review of Books by Indonesian journalist Febriana Firdaus.
Discussed with Dewi Fortuna Anwar, a political scientist and former staffer for two Indonesian vice-presidents, in the Asia Matters podcast.
And finally, amid the high levels of interest in Indonesia, several unscrupulous Indonesian publishers have started to sell pirated copies of the book, helpfully highlighting some of the rule of law issues raised therein.
That’s all for now after one crazy year that has shown us humankind at its worst, and its best. Like many of you, I hope to recharge my batteries in the next few weeks and come back in 2021 energised for new challenges and opportunities.
Have a good break and stay safe.
Ben
Congrats on a most productive year, Ben! I particularly enjoyed your thoughts on how to get policymakers in Washington to care about SE Asia. Hope you can enjoy some down time over the holidays!